Leadership When The Future And The Past Collide
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Recently, two articles appeared in my feed on the same day. From very different perspectives, they explored the challenges leaders face when the past and future reach an inflection point. Charles Handy described this as The Second Curve.
The first article focused on the recent and successful Ukrainian drone attacks.
With Operation Spider Web, Ukrainian forces transformed how we view armed conflict. They played a card that no one knew they had. Drones in combat are a recent development but not a new idea. How they were used in Spider Web was novel, and Russia was not prepared for it.
Military history is full of examples where new tactics and technology proved overwhelming.
The Battle of the Somme (1916) saw the British suffer 60,000 casualties, including 20,000 killed. The Allies used traditional tactics against a new weapon – the machine gun. The debate continues about the significance and effectiveness of the Somme offensive.
In the Battle of Agincourt (1415), French Knights and heavy cavalry used traditional shockwave tactics and were decimated by English longbowmen.
One of ancient Rome’s worst military disasters was the Battle of Carrhae (53 BC). Rome’s heavy infantry and tactics were not a match for Parthian mounted archers using composite bows and hit-and-run tactics.
The second article from Marketplace explores whether leaders should use soft or hard dates in our current uncertain times.
In an unpredictable economy, should we turn to hard or soft data for answers? | Marketplace
There is a fundamental reality at play that many fail to consider properly. Any data that can be analyzed is historical, incomplete, and imperfect. In a sense, when using data to make decisions, you are driving your car by only looking at the rearview mirror. Every data set is a subset of the universe’s data, creating a map of the world. The scale you choose determines the map’s precision. No data set is perfect. As corrections are made to fix errors and add previously missed information, the analytics will change. Typically, the impact is minimal.
I believe the article’s title presents a false choice. We should always be using both hard and soft data. Hard data can establish trends and drive short- and medium-term decision-making. Soft data enables us to adjust the analytics to reflect uncertainty. An example is when a manufacturing firm decides to build a new plant, they are making a 30-year bet about which of their products will be in demand for a generation.
Uncertainty is something we all live with every day. I wrote about this in a previous newsletter. Leaders must embrace uncertainty to chart their course.
Leaders who see the future first are visionary.
Leaders who adapt quickly are effective.
Leaders who are late are laggards.
Related Articles
Battle of the Somme | Wikipedia
The Machine Gun’s Role at the Battle of the Somme | Warfare History Network
Battle of Agincourt | Britannica
The Battle of Agincourt Brought to Life in Stunning Animation: 1415 | YouTube
Chips and Salsa: Snack-sized news and posts
Pope Leo described a Van Gogh painting as an image of hope.
This is an interesting article that explores how powerful nations can fail. Corporations often fail for the same reason. They fail to see their own decline.
How a Great Power Falls Apart | Foreign Affairs
This article raises interesting points about executive compensation. One thing not discussed was the role Zaslav played in setting the strategy and defining success. One solution I would propose is to limit cash compensation to $1 million per year. All other rewards would be in common stock that becomes tradable beginning in year three in equal amounts until year ten. This stock would be giftable and willable on the same sale timetable. This would drive a focus on long-term plannng, but it would also drive analysts and traders crazy.
Let’s be honest. Would any of us hire a person with this resume to be our Chief Information Security Officer (CISO)? Experience matters.
So wrong on so many levels. When we stop talking to each other, we are doomed.
Why AI Is Making 1:1 Meetings Irrelevant | Fast Company
Entertainment
I love movies and television. Film Noir is one of my favorite genres, and several of my favorite films are on this list, which is dominated by Humphrey Bogart.
10 Great Movie Quotes That Perfectly Define The Film Noir Genre | ScreenRant
Norm!
Top 10 Norm Walks into Cheers Lines | Medium
One of the key requirements for effective analytics is to accept unexpected results and keep digging to explore.
What Are the Most Influential Films in Movie History? A Statistical Analysis | Stat Significant
Science
When the Antarctic ice melts, this is what the land will look like.
Just because we cannot see something does not mean it does not exist.
Quotes
“No matter what happens in the world, learning to take action amidst uncertainty is the skill you need.”
- Ethan Mollick
“Nine-tenths of wisdom is being wise in time.”
- Theodore Roosevelt
“Sometimes your only available transportation is a leap of faith.”
- Margaret Shepherd
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I write about leadership in business and life. I am a certified M&A Specialist and Leadership coach. My perspectives are based on my 40+ year career working with leaders from around the world at more than 100 companies.
My goal is to make this newsletter as interesting and valuable as possible. Please share your thoughts and suggestions for improvement. If there are specific topics in leadership you would like me to focus on in future issues, please send them my way.
You can order The Leader With A Thousand Faces on my website’s Recommended Reading Page. This page also has links to purchase the books discussed in this and previous newsletters.
