Quantum Computing: The Inflection Point We Can See Coming

Jul 28

Quantum computing is about to become the next big disruptor in business. The last one was generative AI, and many of us were caught off guard by how quickly it moved from research labs to being ready for general use.

Before we get into quantum, here is a quick quiz. When did you see your first major public demonstration of generative AI? Hold that answer. We will come back to it later in this newsletter.

Why Is Quantum Computing Fundamentally Different from Current Computing?

Quantum computing works on different principles than the machines we use today. Traditional computers store information in bits, and each bit holds a value of zero or one. Quantum computers use qubits, and a single qubit can hold multiple values at the same time. This property is called superposition, and it lets a quantum computer explore many possible answers simultaneously rather than one at a time.

Qubits can also become entangled. When two qubits are entangled, the state of one determines the state of the other, even when they are physically separated. This linkage gives quantum systems a way to coordinate information that classical computers cannot replicate.

Quantum algorithms use a third property called interference. Interference lets an algorithm cancel out wrong answers by adjusting the wave patterns that represent each qubit's state. There is no need for the sequential logic gates that classical computers rely on. Classical machines check possibilities one after another. Quantum computers map the entire problem space at once, and that is the real source of their speed.

This is not simply about faster processing. A classical computer works through each option in a chain, and each step depends on the one before it. A quantum computer holds the full range of possibilities in superposition and narrows toward the answer through interference. For certain classes of problems, that difference in approach adds up to a massive advantage.

When will this technology reach commercial use? The estimates keep shifting, and they keep converging. IBM has targeted 2029 for fault tolerant quantum computing, according to McKinsey's 2026 Quantum Technology Monitor. Amazon's AI executive Peter DeSantis told CNBC in June that commercially useful, small scale quantum computers should appear within five to seven years, putting Amazon's own estimate around 2031 to 2033. Other technology leaders have offered timelines ranging from about five years to fifteen years out. We do not know the exact date. We do know the window to prepare is closing faster than most leaders expect.

The Quiz Answer

Now, the quiz answer. The earliest large scale demonstration I remember was in 2011, when IBM's Watson competed on Jeopardy! against two of the show's most successful champions. Watson won convincingly, and the match aired to millions of viewers in February 2011.

Relive the moment: Watson beats Ken Jennings

Did you remember this moment, or was your first exposure to generative AI more recent? Share your answer in the comments.

Generative AI took many of us by surprise, but it should not have. IBM Watson demonstrated the underlying capabilities on national television in 2011. OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic were all building on that foundation by 2020. I wish I had paid closer attention to what was coming.

What You Can Do to Start Getting Ready

‍So what can we do now to get ready for quantum, so it does not become the surprise that generative AI was?

Start with cybersecurity. Work with your cybersecurity providers to understand how quantum computing changes your threat model. Nation states and criminal organizations are already collecting encrypted data today with plans to decrypt it once quantum computers mature. Security researchers call this "harvest now, decrypt later," and a recent R Street Institute study warns that critical infrastructure sectors are running out of time to migrate to quantum safe encryption.

Train your people. Your key team members need to understand how quantum computing differs from the systems they know today, and what its real capabilities and limitations are. This is not a topic to leave solely to your technical staff. Coding will be radically different. Running legacy code on a quantum computer leaves all of the potential unused.

Run some trials. Work with quantum labs and cloud providers to test how quantum computing might improve your own processes. Early experimentation teaches an organization what is realistic and what is still years away.

Build an ROI framework. Quantum computing will be expensive, especially in its early years. Not every improvement in speed or analysis will translate into savings that justify the cost. A disciplined framework helps us separate genuine opportunity from expensive experimentation.

Following these steps puts us in position to benefit from quantum computing rather than scramble to catch up later. This is our chance to avoid the mistake many companies made at the start of the generative AI hype cycle: committing budgets without a clear plan or understanding of the real benefits.

Quantum computing will be one of the defining inflection points in the next decade. The companies that prepare now, deliberately and with a clear framework, will be the ones ready to act when the technology matures. The ones who wait may find themselves relearning the same lesson generative AI already taught us.

Getting ready for an inflection point like this rarely happens by accident. It takes a clear direction, a capable team, and a willingness to fund the preparation phase before the payoff arrives. That is the work ahead of us, and it starts now.

Bits still count the world,
until a new machine wakes
and counts it all at once.

Quantum Fundamentals

Explainer: What Is a Quantum Computer? | MIT Technology Review

Quantum Computing Explained | NIST

What Is Quantum Computing? | IBM

Quantum Computing vs. Classical Computing: Key Differences | BlueQubit

Quantum Computing in 2026: The Lab Meets the Real World | Enterprise Technology Association

Business Outlook and Timelines

Amazon Predicts Commercially Useful Quantum Computers in Five to Seven Years | CNBC

Quantum Technology Monitor 2026: A Commercial Tipping Point | McKinsey & Company

Building Business Readiness for Quantum Computing | OECD

CEOs Need to Shape Where Quantum Creates Value | BCG

I do not agree with the headline's assumption. Adapting to quantum is a team endeavor. The CEO must set a direction, dedicate a high-quality team, and fund the preparation phase.

Cybersecurity and Preparedness

U.S. Critical Infrastructure Is Running Out of Time on Quantum Threats | R Street Institute

Q-Day Has Already Begun. Are You Ready? | IBM

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Quotes

“I read once that the true mark of a pro — at anything — is that he understands, loves, and is good at even the drudgery of his profession.”

Paul Halmos

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Simon Johnson

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Edward R. Murrow

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Leadership is the most important work we do—in business and in life. I've spent over 40 years working with leaders across more than 100 companies, and I'm still learning. These newsletters share my thoughts on leadership today and what we can learn.

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