Thinking In Time: The Uses Of History For Decision Makers
A Book Review
Thinking In Time was written in the 1980s by Richard Neustadt and Ernest May. Despite its usual classification, this is not a book about history. It is about leadership and decision making. It uses political history to demonstrate its premise. It is very informative, but it has two flaws. It is dry and hard to read. The focus on demonstrating how history should be used to inform decision making leaves the impression that the parties did not choose their path. If you were not in the room where it happened, you are never sure of the logic used.
Humans look for recognizable patterns anytime we need to make decisions. If your neighbor in the cave next door is eaten by something big, hairy, and snarly, you will on the lookout for big, hairy, snarly things. The same evolutionary wiring drives how we make decisions today.
The authors lay out several practical steps to help us learn the right things from history so we can make better decisions today.
Identify the History – Look for one or more previous experiences that appear to be relevant. Compare and Contrast – As you evaluate the old stories, document where they are alike and where they are different. Somethings may look the same on the surface but upon study are not useful.
List Your Presumptions – Document the assumptions that are implied in the list of similarities and differences.
Understand all Points of View – Identify the key individuals and organizations that will be impacted by the decision and try to predict their reactions to the alternatives and strategies you develop.
Changes Drivers – Understand what information would cause you to change your original position. As you learn more, it is crucial to make sure the main drivers have not fundamentally changed.
Time Streams – Time streams are perhaps the most important concept included in the book. Leaders need to think in broad time frames. Where you are today is the result of history. Today will become someone else’s history. Thinking across long time horizons helps you avoid unintended consequences.
