Democrat Voter Trends 2026 Compared to 2024 – The New York Times
Before we begin, I want to share a quote from Donald E. Williams: "The things that we share in our world are far more valuable than those which divide us."
In tennis, an unforced error is a point lost to our own mistake rather than to an opponent's skill. The results of the 2026 midterm elections were heavily influenced by unforced errors that voters noticed and remembered.
As leaders, we can learn a great deal from studying Republican leadership missteps before, during, and after the campaign. The same mistakes show up in companies, nonprofits, and boardrooms every day, and they are easier to recognize in someone else's organization than in our own.
During The Campaign
Not listening. In a February interview with WLOX, Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith was asked what Republicans were doing about the rising cost of food, especially beef. Part of her answer was, "You have so many proteins to choose from." She may as well have said, "Let them eat cake."
Her Democratic opponent, Scott Colom, immediately turned the clip into a campaign ad that spread on social media. One of the voters in the ad responded, "Pick another protein. She done lost her damn mind. I'd rather pick another Senator." In business, we would recognize this mistake right away. When customers tell us our prices are hurting them, telling them to buy something else is not a strategy. It tells them we were not listening, and they take their business elsewhere.
Choosing terrible candidates. Many candidates were chosen specifically for their loyalty and failed spectacularly. None more so than Ken Paxton in Texas, who defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff after receiving President Trump's endorsement. Paxton carried years of legal and ethical controversy, including a 2015 securities fraud indictment that ended in a 2024 pretrial agreement and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House. Cornyn and other party leaders had warned that this baggage would cost the party.
Democrat James Talarico ran an ad that highlighted the experience he lacked by comparison: "Never indicted for fraud, never reported to the FBI for bribery, never impeached by my own party, and never gave a sweetheart deal to a pedophile." Paxton lost by 12 points. In hiring and promotion decisions, we would call this a selection failure: the organization picked the candidate who pleased the boss rather than the one who could do the job.
Failing to do their homework. In North Carolina, the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, ran attack ads accusing former Governor Roy Cooper of being soft on crime. One showed Ronald Hayes, a father talking about the shooting death of his son. Hayes later said the producers misled him about how the ad would be used. A second ad from the same group tied Cooper to the murder of Logan Federico, which happened in South Carolina and was committed by a man released from a South Carolina jail. Cooper was running for the Senate in North Carolina.
Due diligence is basic to any business decision. When an organization skips it, the cost goes beyond one bad outcome. It loses credibility, and every message that follows becomes harder to believe.
Before the campaign
Some of the most costly errors were made long before the campaign began.
Tariffs. In business, if we feel current contracts require payments to suppliers to come down or prices to customers to go up, we work to renegotiate the agreements. We don't arbitrarily ignore the agreements and unilaterally impose new ones. Launching a global tariff war contributed to a spike in inflation and multiple expensive legal actions. In February, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful, and more than 1,000 businesses had already sued for refunds. Many of our strongest trading partners are actively working to reduce their economic dependence on American trade.
Iran. We started a war ostensibly to keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, but there was no evidence that Iran was building one or was close to having one. In March, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the Senate Intelligence Committee that Iran had made no effort to rebuild its enrichment capability after the June 2025 strikes. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the agency had no evidence of Iran building a bomb.
The Iranian regime, which appeared to be on the brink of collapse, now seems reinvigorated. Its response effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz for months. Because the strait normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil, the closure drove oil prices higher and added to inflation. Both decisions share a pattern we see in organizations that follow Silicon Valley's old mantra, "move fast and break things": acting first and building the justification later. When the justification does not hold up, the people who carry the cost remember who made the decision.
After the election
The unforced errors did not stop on Election Night, and they were not limited to one party.
Representative Robert Garcia (D-CA), who is in line to chair the House Oversight Committee, responded to the results with two words: "Lawyer up." Whatever his intent, it sends the message that Democrats may be seeking revenge rather than moving forward. Voters who just asked for change may not want to spend the next two years watching retribution.
In Texas, State Representative Brian Harrison called on Governor Greg Abbott to convene a special session before Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa takes office. The intent is to curb her ability to act. He said, "We still have total power in Texas, and we must act like it by using the remaining ten weeks to restore separation of powers and limit the emergency powers that Governor-Elect Hinojosa is set to inherit."
The timing reinforced what many felt: those in power cared more about holding and wielding power than about doing what the electorate wanted them to do. We need to assess recent events honestly and define future responsibilities and acceptable behaviors, no matter who holds power next.
What I want to see happen
Renewal, not revenge. I want to see Democrats focus on renewal, not revenge, and make sure all their statements are about moving forward. To be successful, they cannot appear to be litigating the past. Some past actions require scrutiny, and where it is warranted, there should be consequences. The purpose of the scrutiny must be to ensure the mistakes of the past are not repeated. Any leader who inherits a troubled organization faces the same choice: spend the first year assigning blame, or spend it rebuilding.
Here are a few areas I would like to see addressed, most of them by the next Congress.
Define the scope of executive orders and executive privilege. I would like to see bipartisan legislation that better defines the scope of executive privilege and executive orders. The numbers show how much their use has grown:
Ø George W. Bush, 8 years: 291
Ø Barack Obama, 8 years: 276
Ø Joe Biden, 4 years: 162
Ø Donald Trump, about 6 years across two terms: 508 as of October 1
Actions like demolishing the White House East Wing, renaming the Kennedy Center, and remodeling a Washington, D.C., golf course have been challenged as extra-legal. The new guidelines would apply to all future presidents, regardless of party.
Legislatively define "high crimes and misdemeanors." Since the 1990s, impeachment has become a political billy club. We need to return it to its original purpose. In Federalist No. 65, Alexander Hamilton described impeachable offenses as those arising from "the abuse or violation of some public trust," relating to "injuries done immediately to the society itself." Engaging legal scholars to review all past uses, or near uses, of impeachment would help us craft legislation that removes it from political theater.
Reconsider lifetime appointments. We should consider amending the Constitution to eliminate lifetime appointments to the federal bench and the Supreme Court. At the beginning of our nation, the average age at death for Supreme Court justices was 61 years. Today it is 84. The founders did not anticipate 25 extra years of life. The terms would still be very long: perhaps 24 years, the length of three two-term presidencies.
A mechanism would have to be devised to transition sitting judges and avoid a peak in replacements. As of today, one Supreme Court justice and 18 federal judges have served more than 24 years. We would also need to discuss how to treat federal judges on senior status.
Rebuild our economic foundation. This is the most important one to me. Both Republicans and Democrats want to do more, but the size of the total federal debt makes doing more difficult and probably fiscally irresponsible. Before we can do more, we have to ensure our financial stability. Since 2001, the debt has skyrocketed under every president and every Congress, and both parties have controlled government over that time. I have written about this topic several times, and some of those newsletters are listed below.
An opportunity for the Republican Party. I believe last week's results could be good for the Republican Party. Since the 1990s, the GOP has become more judgmental and entrenched. A loss like this creates room for all of us to work together, build coalitions, and work for the common good, or the "general Welfare," to quote the Constitution.
In my ancient past, I was a precinct captain for Gerald Ford's reelection. I have always admired Theodore Roosevelt. He was far from perfect and a product of his times, but he believed people were responsible for their outcomes and that government had a responsibility to ensure people had a fair chance to achieve success. This is why I do not recognize the Republican Party of today.
None of the errors in this campaign needed a brilliant opponent to exploit them. Not listening, choosing the wrong people, and skipping the homework cost companies customers, talent, and trust in the same way. The leaders who recover fastest are the ones who study their own unforced errors honestly and change course before the next contest, not after it.
Rather than a haiku, in this newsletter I close with the Preamble:
"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
This is what we are about.
The Midterm Ads That Defined Republicans and Democrats | The New York Times
Texas Republicans Turn on Each Other, Blaming Trump and Paxton for Election Loss | The Texas Tribune
Georgia Republicans Assess an Election Collapse | The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I Study Polling Failures: This Time, Pollsters Were Mostly Right, if Not Precise | The Conversation
Harrison Calls on Abbott to Limit Hinojosa's Powers | The Hill
Blue Wave: Democrats' Historic Midterm Gains Could Offer Canada a Path to Peace | The Conversation
'Pick Another Protein?!' GOP Senator's Beef Price Flap Becomes a Viral Ad | Mediaite
NC Father at Center of US Senate Ad Says He Was 'Swindled' by GOP Operatives | NC Newsline
US Intel Chief Gabbard Says Iran Was Not Rebuilding Enrichment Prior to War | Al Jazeera
Iran Was Not Rebuilding Nuclear Enrichment, US Intelligence Finds | Al-Monitor (AFP)
What I Think of The Results of the U.S. Midterm Elections | Ray Dalio
Some of my newsletters on the economy.
$40 Trillion Later, Still Waiting for a Plan | LinkedIn
The Bill Nobody Wants to Pay: America's Debt Crisis and Its Leaders | LinkedIn
The Economy Looks Strong. Why Does It Feel Fragile? | LinkedIn
Federal Debt: Decades of Absent Leadership | LinkedIn
Chips And Salsa: Bite-Sized News and Posts
About the time we stop worrying, life has a way of proving us wrong.
Cathie Wood on the AI Selloff | CNBC
When tough decisions have to be made, how we make them matters.
Canva Praised for the Way It Fired Employees | Morning Brew
If we do not put our financial house in order, this could be our fate.
France's Crisis Over Raising the Pension Age Holds a Lesson for the UK | The i Paper
Amid Protests, France's Rising Debt Costs Threaten Stability | DW
I believed LIV golf was doomed from the start. There was never a path to profitability. The Saudi PIF may have had some nonfinancial objectives; ultimately, the fund had to make money.
How LIV Golf Miscalculated Fans and the Game | Golf.com
PGA vs. LIV: A Leadership Retrospective | LinkedIn
The stupidest thing on wheels. You knew it was doomed when the "armored glass" windows at the reveal.
RIP Cybertruck: You Were Unloved, Unwanted, and Utterly Absurd | Wired
We may or may not see it in our lifetime.
Two Giant Black Holes in One Galaxy Could Merge in 100 Years | Space Daily
AI won't go away, but it will come back down to earth.
Inside Big Tech Companies' Big Slump This Week | Marketplace
The phrase "life after death" has two meanings: what happens when we leave, and what happens to those we leave behind.
We Need a Language to Name the Grief That Comes Without Death | Aeon
I love comics. Comic books not so much.
10 Far Side Caveman Comics That Are 10/10 Perfect | ScreemRant
The haunted housing market.
Axios Markets Newsletter | Axios
Quotes
"I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him."
Galileo Galilei
"A lot of people mistake a short memory for a clear conscience."
Doug Larson
"People may spend their whole lives climbing the ladder of success only to find, once they reach the top, that the ladder is leaning against the wrong wall."
Thomas Merton
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Leadership is the most important work we do—in business and in life. I've spent over 40 years working with leaders across more than 100 companies, and I'm still learning. These newsletters share my thoughts on leadership today and what we can learn.
I need your help making this better. What topics hit home? What misses the mark? What leadership challenges are you wrestling with right now? Send them my way.
I use AI to enhance my writing. All of the ideas, recommendations, and opinions are mine. To read about my process for leveraging AI, please read this newsletter.
Find The Leader With A Thousand Faces and other recommended books on my website.
