A Brilliant Example of Data Analysis
Today's second topic is a book review of "The Men Who Lost America."
Word Count: About 1,400 words, with an approximate reading time of 5 to 7 minutes. Please share your thoughts in the comments.
Links to purchase the books discussed in this newsletter can be found on my website's recommended reading page.
In his article, Which Movies Stand the Test of Time, and Which Don't? A Statistical Analysis, Daniel Parris provides an exceptional statistical analysis of the long-term relevance of movies. This article offers a framework to use when undertaking any complex data analysis project.
Step One – Start with the right question.
Parris asks, "Which movies stand the test of time, and which don't." This question limits the ability to take shortcuts to an answer. If the question had used phrases like most popular, most awarded, or most money made, it would have missed most, if not all, of the interesting points raised in the article.
Step Two – Choose the right data.
It would have been easy to select metrics that, on the surface, seem sound but are ultimately flawed. Total box office is one of the most poorly used data points. Most articles fail to adjust for inflation, making comparing older movies to today's films hard. Parris used data from MovieLense, a project spearheaded by The University of Minnesota's Grouplens Research lab.
Step Three – Define how you will use the data.
It is critical to define this before beginning the analysis. Just as scientific experiments outline the process and expected results, data analysis must do the same. Failing to do this can lead to changes in the analysis if the data does not match the original premise. It is better to be wrong and learn why the initial assumptions were incorrect. Without this, leaders will be making decisions on suspect information.
Step Four – Remember that the data is not the answer.
Reports with many charts and graphs have an aura of accuracy and reliability. It takes human judgment to find meaning in the data. Every commercial for an investment product includes the phrase "past performance is not an indicator of future results." Every data analysis project relies on historical data, and each source varies in quality and timeliness. Your decisions need to take this into account.
In The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't, Nate Silver explores ways to understand the data around us better.
My thoughts on the films mentioned by decade.
Feel free to skip this section if you like. I added it because I love movies. We get together with friends for movie nights every couple of months. Our last fill was The Lady Eve. The next is My Man Godfrey.
1920s – Metropolis is a groundbreaking film. The full-length version was believed to be lost until a print was found in Argentina in 2008. The film was restored and is well worth watching. Also of note, Fritz Lang's Robot Maria may have been the first evil AI in cinema.
1930s – When I was taking a Radio, Television, and Film class at The University of Texas at Austin, I wrote a paper titled "King Kong – One of the Greatest Comedies of All Time. I received an A. This only works if you watch the full, uncut version of the film.
1940s—For my money, Casablanca is the greatest film of all time. Citizen Kane, released in the same decade, is also a great film. The Best Years of Our Lives is a great film that did not make the graphic.
1950s – Alfred Hitchcock dominates with Rear Window, Vertigo, and Noth by Northwest.
1960s – Dr. Strangelove and To Kill a Mockingbird shine a light on the world around us.
1970s—The Godfather and Monty Python and the Holy Grail appear on the same list. Without data, I never would have made that connection.
1980s—Science fiction dominates; the era of the franchise begins. I have never been a huge Star Wars fan; I describe it as science fantasy rather than science fiction. This is the crucial difference between Star Wars and Star Trek.
1990s—This was a great decade for movies. I will never understand how Shakespeare in Love won Best Picture over Saving Private Ryan.
2000s—Lord of the Rings fills up the list, but there were many other great films.
Related Articles
See The Evolution Of Nearly Every Major Movie Studio Logo In One Image (Fast Company)
The B-Movie Monsters That Time Forgot! (YouTube - Little White Lies)
The Art and Nostalgia of the Film Company Logo (FSR)
What's the Greatest Year in Oscar History? A Statistical Analysis (Stat Significant)
Top 10 Oscar Winners of All Time | A CineFix Movie List
Book Review: The Men Who Lost America: British Leadership, the American Revolution and the Fate of the Empire by Andrew Jackson O'Shaughnessy
History is written by the victors. This book is the exception to that rule. The Men Who Lost America profiles the key British leaders and their role in the Revolutionary War.
There are a few reasons why America was victorious. Each of these occurs every day in corporations around the world.
Flawed Assumptions – The British entered the conflict believing only a small minority supported the revolution and loyal citizens would rally to the cause. This never proved to be true. Leaders, especially those in London, never questioned or abandoned that idea until it was too late.
Early in my career, I worked for a company whose strategic objective was to become one of the top 5 US Oil & Gas firms. In the early 1980s, the price of oil collapsed, but our leadership continued to acquire assets. That firm no longer exists.
Mixed Messages – The first British commanders (General Howe, Admiral Howe, and General Clinton) were called peace commissioners. Believing the war would end quickly, their guidance was to prepare for a peaceful reintegration of the colonies. As a result, they did not wage war with the single objective of winning. This resulted in a missed opportunity to defeat General Washington in New York.
I have worked for several IT consulting and services firms where this dynamic played out. Account managers were responsible for growing revenue. This proved to be a disincentive to offering new services that would reduce client costs.
Too Many Strategic Initiatives – London started separate actions in the Caribbean, Central America, and Spanish Florida while prosecuting the war in America. This resulted in a diversion of men and materials from the American theater.
Many firms fall into this trap. They try to enter into new markets, develop new services, and make acquisitions to grow the business. Often, resources are diverted from existing initiatives to launch new ones. In the end, everything languishes for a lack of attention.
What I'm Up To
My home golf course, Texas Rangers Golf Club, hosted the Korn Ferry Veritex Bank Challenge. Frankie Capan III shot a course-record 58 on the first day. The previous course record was 59, held by Scottie Scheffler. The tournament raises funds for The Ashford Rise School of Dallas, "Where Special Kids Shine!"
Chips and Salsa: Snack-sized news and posts
I like cooking with cast iron. It is perfect for preparing vegetables on the grill. I would never pay this much. (But if someone sent me one to review, I would accept it – wink, wink, nudge, nudge.)
Review: Kuhn Rikon Black Star Pan (Wired)
Planning for retirement is challenging. Not only do we have to save for what we can anticipate, but we also need to plan for the unexpected. Because we are living longer, we need more savings than ever. Unfortunately, most people have failed to save enough in their early careers.
Two articles on current population shifts. One looks at the demographics. The other explores the fleeting nature of success governments experience as they recruit companies to their areas.
The U.S. States Losing & Gaining Population (Statista)
Texas Attracted California Techies. Now It's Losing Thousands of Them. (Tesas Monthly)
Good news for my hometown.
Satellite communications startup to build manufacturing plant in Arlington (Ft. Worth Report)
My wife and I never suffered from 'empty nest syndrome.' We always kept in mind that if our daughter had never left home to make her own life, we would have failed in a primary responsibility as parents.
D.C. parents hire empty nest coaches for when kids leave home (Axios)
The ability to disagree without being disagreeable is a rare skill.
How to Criticize with Kindness (Pocket)
Good AI reading from MIT Sloan.
Accelerated research about generative AI from MIT Sloan (MIT Sloan)
An MIT Exploration of Generative AI (MIT)
Quotes
"Knowledge is power only if man knows what facts not to bother with."
- Robert Lynd
"Don't let profound be the enemy of interesting."
- Wiley Miller
"Useful knowledge is a great support for intuition."
- Charles B. Rogers
You can order The Leader With A Thousand Faces on the Recommended Reading Page of my website.
My goal is to make this newsletter as interesting and valuable as possible. Please share your thoughts and suggestions for improvement. If there are specific topics in leadership you would like me to focus on in future issues, please send them my way.
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