AI Will Be What We Make Of It
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Today’s second topic is a book review of ‘Future Forecasting."‘
Word Count: About 11,500 words, with an approximate reading time of 6 to 8 minutes. Please share your thoughts in the comments. Please be kind and subscribe to my newsletter.
Links to purchase the books discussed in this newsletter can be found on my website's recommended reading page.
I do not believe AI will create a utopian or a dystopian world. Artificial intelligence is a tool. Several are available (ChatGPT, Bard, Copilot, etc.), and more will likely be released over the next few years. The impact AI will have on our world will be determined by three things.
The Developers
The intent of the developers is essential. Cyber criminals will use the power of AI to take advantage of people. Some nation-states use technology to interfere with and potentially destabilize governments. The majority of developers want to make things better. They want people to have good information and businesses to run more efficiently.
Their ability to accomplish their goals, good or evil, is primarily based on their technical capability. The skilled can make technology do amazing things. The incompetent can make a mess of the best tools.
The Users
Users must be able to ask good questions to use AI well. A main attribute of good questions is that they are not leading questions. Often, without realizing it, we ask questions that guide the answer. To use AI well, we need to ask thoughtful questions and develop probing follow-up questions. Once we have the answer we plan to use, it is time to ask questions that explore the negative. Like a formal debate, this pro/con approach to asking questions leads to better outcomes. Ask your questions on multiple platforms to see how the answers differ.
The most important aspect of using AI is never letting it become your voice. AI can help with research and first drafts, but as users, we need to validate, synthesize, and develop our own thoughts and ideas.
The Data
As is true with any system, output quality is directly correlated to the inputs. Garbage in, garbage out. Data quality is based on age, accuracy, and relevance. Good data that is two months old is better than two-year-old information. Regardless of age, we must assess the accuracy based on the source. Finally, the efficacy of the data depends on its relevance to the subject at hand. For example, if you are writing about the English Premier League, US Women’s National Team data will be of little value.
We must always question what AI generates to ensure bad actors or data are not misleading us. It is also important to keep in mind that AI uses historical data. Past trends are not guaranteed to hold true in the future. In his book If Not Now When?: Duty and Sacrifice in America’s Time of Need, Col. Jack Jacobs (Ret.), a Medal of Honor recipient, wrote the following - “Because nobody can predict the future, and because all of our conclusions are functions of our assumptions, there is no way to view any outcome with certainty. There is risk in every human endeavor.”
The best analogy I have found is that AI is a puppet show. In the hands of a master puppeteer, the marionette will come to life. An adequate puppeteer can make the moves, but they are not fluid and less entertaining. The inadequate or incompetent puppeteer will tangle the strings.
Related Articles
AI's colossal puppet show (Axios)
AI predictions: Top 13 AI trends for 2024 (Medium)
These six questions will dictate the future of generative AI (MIT Technology Review)
How Not to Be Stupid About AI, With Yann LeCun (Wired)
Generative AI, Transform the future of business and lead with trust (PWC)
Society Faces Tough Choices About Artificial Intelligence (Alcalde)
Book Review – Future Forecasting: Mitigating Risk and Increasing Profit in a Chaotic World by Hart S. Brown.
We live in an era of great change. Whether this is the time of greatest change may be in the eye of the beholder. My father might have said the 1930 to 1945 was the greatest change. He endured the great depression and served in the Navy during World War Two. When the war ended, the world was forever changed. His father may have said the time between 1914 and 1930 saw more change. World War One was one of the bloodiest ever, and it led to the end of the colonial global order that had dominated world affairs for centuries. This collapse created a void that was filled by fascism.
Today’s change is unique because of the transition to an information and data-driven age and a more interconnected global economy. Future Forecasting explores many of the issues leaders must grapple with every day. Each chapter focuses on one area and explores the factors that affect strategic business planning. Each reader has to determine how issues, such as the evolution of cryptocurrency, geopolitical change, and the new space race, will impact their business.
Two additions would make the book more valuable. Examples of forecasts (charts, graphs, and reports) would bring each topic into more focus. They could be developed from anonymized client presentations. A chapter at the end that discusses how to balance information from multiple forecasts and develop a comprehensive business strategy would be helpful.
The need for forecasting has never been greater. We need to make forecasts and assess the risk they pose to our enterprise, and move forward. This process is iterative. Assumptions must be reviewed to be sure they are still valid. The data used must be routinely updated and assessed for quality. If these reviews result in material change, we must revisit our strategies and course of action.
What I’m Up To
Starting the new year with optimism.
Chips and Salsa: Snack-sized news and posts
With the new year, articles about improving meetings are a common topic. I wrote about salvaging bad meetings. Here is a link to that post.
Salvaging Bad Meetings (Medium)
Salvaging Bad Meetings (LinkedIn)
This article suggests a monthly vision meeting. If you need this, you have not communicated your vision very well. A semi-annual vision confirmation meeting may be helpful. The world changes; your vision needs to adapt.
5 Ways To Trim The Fat From Your Meetings In The New Year (Forbes)
Two thoughts on this article. First, the stain of unethical behavior will follow you forever. Second, I have never understood why people with exceptional talent feel the need to cheat.
Thursday Night Football Announcer Disses Astros on National Television (Sports Illustrated)
This is a drum I will always beat. Do not think in terms of leaving. Focus on a career pivot. If you leave without a plan, you may end up in a worse position.
6 Signs It’s Time to Leave Your Job (Harvard Business Review via Pocket)
This was inevitable. Movies have always run in cycles. In the 1970s, disaster movies ruled the box office; Airport, The Poseidon Adventure, and The Towering Inferno are a few. In the 80s, slasher movies dominated with what felt like an infinite number of Halloween, Elm Street, and Texas Chainsaws. It is time for comic books to take a break. (And to make the stories so convoluted and multiverse focused.)
Superhero boom goes bust (Axios)
This article feels a bit elitist. Most companies don’t have these programs. Those that do only offer it to a select few. Most workers would not be able to afford unpaid sabbaticals. Companies would be better focused on why people are burned out in the first place. Better leadership, realistic workloads, and meaningful training and development would be more effective.
Way to Beat Burnout. It's Even Better Than Vacation (Inc.)
Do not get trapped in cycles that reinforce negative feelings to prevent burnout.
The way out of burnout (The Economist)
Often, the most brilliant ideas are the simplest.
In my book, there is a chapter about crafting your personal image. Dressing appropriately for each situation is important. As we have moved away from formal business attire, dressing for success is more challenging than ever.
This is what you’re going to wear in 2024 (Fast Company)
This article provides examples of the ideas in Atomic Habits by James Clear. A continuous improvement of 1% per day leads to an annual gain of 37%. Just being a tiny bit better than average every day leads to amazing results.
How to Create an Amazing Life In 60 Days By Being Average (Medium)
History teaches us that we always have to fight evil. We can fight it there, or we can let it get stronger and fight it here. I am concerned that so many people seem to be enamored by fascism without realizing it.
The War in Ukraine Is Not a Stalemate (Foreign Affairs)
Conflict is healthy if properly managed. Differences of opinion often lead to collaborative solutions that are more effective.
How To Manage Team Conflict (davidburkus.com)
Quotes
“Unfortunately, most warning systems do not warn us that they can no longer warn us.”
- Charles Perrow
“False words are not only evil in themselves, but they infect the soul with evil.”
- Socrates
"Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them."
- Alfred North Whitehead
You can order The Leader With A Thousand Faces on the Recommended Reading Page of my website.
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