Future Thinking Requires Leaving The Past Behind
Image by Barbara A Lane from Pixabay
Today’s second topic is a book review of The Wager, A Tale of Shipwreck, Mutiny and Murder by David Grann.
Word Count: About 1,100 words, with an approximate reading time of 4 to 6 minutes. Please share your thoughts in the comments. Please be kind and subscribe to my newsletter.
Links to purchase the books discussed in this newsletter can be found on my website's recommended reading page.
“Maximum enterprise value gets created during platform shifts…”
Leaders must have the ability to adapt to various situations. We lead differently in a crisis than we do in turnaround or steady-state situations. Perhaps the most challenging scenario is when we are called to be visionary leaders. Satya Nadella captured this essence of recognizing transformative opportunities.
To be successful, you have to see them at the right time. If you are too early, the return on investment time horizon is too long. Too late and you are being reactive to the markets that others create. Charles Handy’s Second Curve best represents the sweet spot.
Handy’s curve visualizes when transformative change needs to start. Organization leaders need to recognize early indicators that the current state is nearing the point of saturation or diminishing returns. The second curve has to begin while the first curve is still performing. That is when you have the time and resources to invest in change. Visionary leaders need to predict and shape what the next generation will look like. The challenge is that “Second-Curve thinking does not come easily. It requires imagination, intuition, and instinct more than rational analysis.” When a business model reaches its limits, it must evolve. Evolution requires the human ability to leap beyond trends and logic to see new realities and opportunities.
Related Articles
Inc - With 1 Sentence, Satya Nadella Just Taught a Master Class in Recognizing Opportunity
YouTube - Charles Handy on The Second Curve
CFO University - How to Master Second-Curve Thinking and Career Success
Book Review – The Wager, A Tale of Shipwreck, Mutiny and Murder by David Grann
In 1740, HMS Wager was battered by storms as she passed through the Cape Horn and was shipwrecked on a desolate island off the coast of Patagonia. I read this book because I enjoy history. The reality of this story is that we will never know exactly what happened. The perspectives of the survivors are often conflicting. That leaves the reader to render their verdict. In reading this book, I was struck by the different displays of leadership.
David Cheap
Cheap was promoted to captain of the Wager during the voyage after the death of her first captain. Nothing points to Cheap being a poor commander until after the shipwreck. During the resulting crisis, Cheap lost the confidence of many of his crew. The main disagreement was between Cheap’s desire to continue the mission with the available small support ships and John Bulkeley's desire to use those ships to go back through the cape and return to England.
John Bulkeley
Bulkeley was the Wager’s Gunner. He was the leader of the return to England faction. Bulkeley demonstrated strong leadership capabilities. He was patient and took the time to build his coalition slowly, eventually leading to the mutiny against Cheap. Bulkeley took the proactive step of documenting his justifications in real-time. His was the only contemporaneous record. Later, he showed the courage to make incredibly hard decisions.
Robert Baynes
Baynes was second in command. He demonstrated little initiative, courage, or leadership capability throughout the ordeal.
John Byron
Byron was only 16 when the Wager sailed. There must have been something about his demeanor because he was a person that everyone wanted to have on their side. He was reluctant to lead given his limited experience. Byron eventually rose to the rank of Vice Admiral. His grandson was the poet Lord George Byron (Don Juan and Childe Harold’s Pilgrimage.)
What I’m Up To
We traveled to Pennsylvania to visit my father-in-law in his memory care nursing home. We stayed with friends and had the opportunity to go hiking. That part of western Pennsylvania consists largely of the Allegheny National Forest and several state parks. The most interesting hike was in the Kinzua Bridge State Park. It contains the Kinzua Viaduct, once the longest and tallest railroad structure in the United States. The bridge was partially destroyed by a tornado in 2003. The remaining structure was converted to a pedestrian bridge in 2011. I tried to take a picture through the glass platform, but it was scratchy and hard to see through.
Chips and Salsa: Snack-sized news and posts
Effective idea generation meetings require structure. Collecting ideas in advance accomplishes two things. The organizer must describe the situation and set expectations about what will happen in the meeting. Collecting ideas in advance allows the facilitator to prepare for the meeting.
Inc - Adam Grant Says This Is the 1 Type of Meeting You Should Never Have
I do want to see this venue.
I wish people would stop using the word hack to describe positive self-improvement. Hack is defined as both “to cut (something or someone) many times and usually in a rough and violent way”, and “a writer, especially of newspaper articles, who does a lot of low quality work.” A hack is an inelegant shortcut to doing something well. Taking measured, deep breaths before presenting is a good way to calm your nerves. More importantly, you need to rehearse, rehearse, and rehearse some more. Being prepared is the best way to be calm.
Inc - The 48-Second Hack to Calm Your Nerves Before a Presentation
We need a rational immigration policy to ensure we have the talented workforce we need to prosper over the long term. Part of that is recognizing that second and third generations often make the most difference. Steve Jobs was an excellent example of this.
Axios - Census projects U.S. population bust by 2080
Taylor Swift continues to impress me.
Inc - Taylor Swift Just Did Something She's Never Done Before.
The Ringer - Taylor Swift Played Her Cards Better Than We Could Have Imagined
When price is the only competition, it never ends well.
Insider - Elon Musk started a price war that Tesla can't win
Interesting science.
ScienceAlert - Earth Has a Mysterious 'Heartbeat' Every 27 Million Years
Quotes
“The one in front is not necessarily the leader. The leader is the one with the vision that people want to follow.”
- John Maxwell
“Surrender to what is, let go of what was, have faith in what will be.”
- Sonia Ricotti
“Without leaps of imagination or dreaming, we lose the excitement of possibilities. Dreaming, after all, is a form of planning.”
- Gloria Steinem
You can order The Leader With A Thousand Faces on the Recommended Reading Page of my website.
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