What Was Unthinkable Ten Years Ago is Thinkable Today
Photo by Dave Photoz on Unsplash
This post is not in my typical newsletter format. The newsletter format is the best way to include multiple links and sources. In my last newsletter, I explored the topic of planning for existential risks and discussed an approach for preparing for likely scenarios=
I recently posted a short review of The Wealth of Shadows, a work of historical fiction grounded in real events. The people and events in the book are real. The author used fiction to make the story engaging. The book explores how the United States joined Britain in economic warfare against Nazi Germany, beginning in 1939, two years before America officially entered the war. The strategic goal was clear: cripple the German economy and indirectly limit the Nazi war effort through financial means rather than military force.
Today, we’re witnessing discussions that would have seemed unthinkable just a decade ago. Will the post-World War 2 global order hold, or is it fractured beyond repair?
Current debates about the U.S. acquisition of Greenland have sparked significant global concerns. Ray Dalio has stated that these developments may lead to reduced foreign investment in U.S. treasuries, warning of potential “capital wars.” Meanwhile, UBS’s Sergio Ermotti counters that diversifying away from the U.S. is impossible, given America’s economic dominance.
I actually agree with both perspectives. The U.S. economy is too large and deeply integrated into global markets to exit. However, it is entirely possible—and increasingly likely—for nations and investors to reduce their presence and exposure. This nuanced reality is what makes our current moment so precarious.
The shift from 2025 to 2026 is particularly striking. While 2025 events were focused on trade relations and tariff negotiations, 2026 has introduced an entirely new dimension: defending territorial integrity. Recent statements from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos 2026 underscore the gravity of this shift. This development has added an unprecedented level of distrust in American commitments and raised a fundamental question that reverberates through boardrooms worldwide: Will the United States keep its word?
For business leaders, this represents more than a geopolitical concern—it’s an existential threat to business continuity and strategic planning. Leaders cannot control what happens in the corridors of power, but they can and must prepare for multiple scenarios. The uncertainty itself demands action.
What seemed unthinkable a decade ago is not only thinkable today; it’s becoming a practical necessity for responsible leadership. The question is no longer whether to prepare for financial and economic warfare, but how to be ready if it happens.
Related Articles
Book Review: The Wealth of Shadows.
EU moves closer to using its trade bazooka against the US | Politico
Diversifying away from America is impossible, UBS CEO says | MSN
Davos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada | WEF
In their words: Trump’s threats over Greenland draw warnings and profanities at global forum | AP
Beyond the Unthinkable: Strategic Planning for Existential Threats | The Leaders Journey
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Leadership is the most important work we do—in business and in life. I've spent over 40 years working with leaders across more than 100 companies, and I'm still learning. These newsletters share my thoughts on leadership today and what we can learn.
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